Will a vaccine be here before the second wave?
Will the vaccine be able to offset the second wave? That is the million-dollar question on every Bengalurean’s mind? A sero survey conducted in Karnataka depicted a seropositivity of around 45 per cent amongst the residents of the state. Theoretically, this indicates some degree of herd immunity. And our covid-19 caseload is at its lowest currently, since we scaled the first peak.
If we compare the trends across the world, it indicates that around three months from December, India may theoretically be in the throes of a second wave.
Dr Satyanarayana Mysore (Consultant and HOD, Sleep Medicine Specialist,
Dodge the wave?
If a proper system of
We are banking on the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine which has to go through initial approvals, followed by manufacturing, and the vaccine will be given in order of priority – all this will take a long time
–Dr Ravindra M Mehta, Apollo Speciality Hospitals, Jayanagar
Other experts said that the second wave can start any time now. Dr Jagadish Hiremath (Medical Director at Ace Suhas Multi-Speciality Hospital) said, “Our history is full of instances where the second wave was more dangerous than the first one. In the case of Covid, we are not sure how long immunity will last after infection; we are not certain of long term immunity. Covid is highly contagious which means when the number of people who can be potentially infected is high the next outbreak can happen. This means it can happen any time now.”
Referring to Europe example which is seeing a deadly second wave, experts in the city say that the second wave is intrinsic to a viral outbreak. Dr. Pradeep Rangappa (Senior Consultant – Critical Care, Columbia Asia Referral Hospital Yeshwanthpur) said, “The effect of the second wave also depends on immune mechanisms in people. There are two types of immune response: innate and adaptive.
With various Covid vaccines being rolled out there is hope that a vaccine can halt the second wave. Dr Chinnadurai R (Lead Consultant, Department of Critical Care,
By the end of March, we will have a mix of people who have developed immunity from the vaccination and/or from previous Covid infection.” However, Dr Mehta feels that it is highly unlikely that the vaccine will come in time to prevent the second wave.
The biggest concern is that with the announcement of the vaccine, many people have actually stopped adhering to the necessary precautions required to keep the transmission of the Covid-19 virus at bay. Dr. Sunil Kumar K (, Lead, Interventional Pulmonology, Aster CMI Hospital) said that due to increased public gatherings during the festive season there can once again be a significant rise in the number of cases during the second wave of the virus.
Just get ready
What people and govt must do:
- Governments should work on stockpiling masks and PPE.
- Hospitals must address non-Covid backlog
- And we should follow the three self-vaccine protocols of hand hygiene social distancing and wearing masks.
World Health Organisationhas warned countries not to wait for vaccines and take all precautions against the spread of this disease.