Karnataka could have 1 lakh positive cases by August 15 | Bengaluru News – Times of India

BENGALURU: A state health department’s projection based on current pace of spread indicates that the number of Covid-19 cases in the state will hit the 1-lakh mark by August 15.
This projection is based on the doubling rate which took into account the current rate of positive cases, transmission potential and average number of secondary infections produced by a typical Covid-positive case in a population where everyone is susceptible.
“In Karnataka, we’re seeing a doubling rate every 15 days. Based on this, our prediction suggests that the state may touch up to 1 lakh cases by August 15,” said Munish Moudgil who is in charge of the Covid-19 War Room.
He said the estimation is based on the current trend while cases are rising across the state. If there is any improvement from the present situation, the least they expect is between 50,000 and 60,000 cases.
For Karnataka to prove the prediction wrong, every individual must practise hygiene norms of wearing a mask, repeatedly washing hands and maintaining social distancing norms. “This will reduce the progression of the virus by 60% to 70%,” he said.
Debunking prediction models, additional chief secretary (health) Jawaid Akthar said the only reliable mechanism of reflecting the ground reality is taking an average of the daily numbers. “While we have conducted two or three studies, including one by our expert committee, these do not give us a fair idea of virus progression rate simply because there are too many variables. In hindsight, we’ve seen that these models are nowhere close to reality,” said Akthar.
The health department, he said, used the average rate of positive cases on a week-by-week basis as the premise for predictions and, therefore, preparations. “With that in mind, we do consider prediction models by various groups and experts to map out our strategies,” he said.
However, many government officials and experts believe projection rates and prediction models will create only panic among citizens and the government does not want to come up with possible numbers.

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Sagar Biswas

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