Cases predicted to touch 1 mn by Nov. 12


‘Karnataka’s Test Positivity Rate of 11.6% is second highest among 12 mega States in the country’

The number of COVID-19 positive cases in Karnataka is expected to touch one million by November 12, by which time the number of victims may reach 12,800.

These are among the predictions by Jeevan Raksha, an initiative of Proxima, a management consulting firm, with the support of Public Health Foundation of India. By deploying the Pandemic and Epidemic Management System to study COVID-19 trends across India, Jeevan Raksha made two forecasts for Karnataka during August and September, whose margin of error was 3%.

Karnataka’s COVID-19 positive cases, which increased from 2,19,926 on August 16 to 4,40,411 on September 12 and to 7,17,915 on October 12, is expected to touch 10,00,000 on November 12. Positive cases are likely to touch a million when India’s surge is anticipated to reach 92,35,000 on November 12 from 71,65,741 on October 12.

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No. of deaths

Jeevan Raksha has predicted the number of deaths in the State to reach 12,800 by November 12 from the 10,314 on October 12. The number of deaths due to COVID-19 in Karnataka had gone up from 3,832 on August 16 to 7,067 on September 12 before reaching 10,314 on October 12. The accuracy of Jeevan Raksha’s earlier two predictions on the number of deaths were 93 and 92% of the actual. Across India, the number of deaths, which stood at 1,10,173 on October 12, is expected to reach 1,34,860 by November 12.

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Jeevan Raksha’s convener Mysore Sanjeev said Karnataka’s Test Positivity Rate of 11.6% was the second highest among the 12 mega States in the country that also include Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Kerala, Maharashtra, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, and West Bengal, which together account for 70% of the country’s total COVID-19 cases.

Claiming that the Test Positivity Rate in Karnataka has not reduced for the last 10 weeks, Mr. Sanjeev said this indicated that the virus was spreading faster and wider in the State.

“Based on the Critical Medical Infrastructure resource planning module of Proxima, Karnataka might require 22,500 oxygen beds, 16,800 ICU beds, and 11,200 ventilators over the next three to six weeks. The government needs to immediately examine the available resources,” he said.

Bengaluru on top

Bengaluru Urban, whose total COVID-19 positive cases crossed three lakh, now not only has more positive cases than Mumbai, but also the highest among all the districts in India.

Accounting for 8% of the total active cases in India, Bengaluru Urban’s total COVID-19 positive cases are expected to reach 4.2 lakh by November 12, leading to a demand for critical infrastructure, according to Jeevan Raksha. “Bengaluru Urban alone might require 13,000 oxygen beds, 10,000 ICU beds, and 6,500 ventilators in the next four to six weeks,” Jeevan Raksha’s convener Mysore Sanjeev said.

Apart from mobilising critical medical infrastructure, the authorities also need to mobilise competent and skilled medical professionals, having experience and expertise to treat the rising number of patients, he said.



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Sagar Biswas

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