Economic recovery to start from June, GDP growth projection to be revised to 10-10.5%, says NITI Aayog VC

After the release of GDP data, NITI Aayog Vice-Chairman (VC) Rajiv Kumar said on June 5 said that the economic recovery will start from June and would gather steam from July onwards. This comes as the country suffers from financial losses due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Kumar’s predictions came after the country’s apex bank RBI lowered the country’s growth forecast for the current fiscal by a percentage point to 9.5% from 10.5%.

NITI Aayog’s VC said in a statement, “The recovery will start from June itself and will get pace from July 2021.”

Kumar further added that the RBI had slashed India’s GDP growth forecast for FY22 from 10.5% to 9.5%  due to the impact of the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic. He noted that the impact of the COVID-19 second wave will be felt in the first quarter of FY22.

“RBI cuts GDP growth forecast for FY22 to 9.5% from 10.5% due to the impact of 2nd wave, which is going to impact our economy in 1st quarter,” Rajiv Kumar said, adding that the economy will recover “below than expected in 1st quarter” and will grow at a pace of “10%-10.5% in FY22.”

Rajiv Kumar is hopeful that pandemic will not have much impact on fiscal deficit and disinvestment targets.”COVID-19 has forced the government to invest more, spend more on public infrastructure, but it will not have much impact as we have seen our GST collection has increased. In the budget also our revenue target were kept very conservative. So I think we will not have to worry much about our fiscal deficit target. If we see the data of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which stated that fiscal deficit target globally is on an average of around 9.8%. Our fiscal deficit is not more than others. I am confident that we will achieve our disinvestment target,” Kumar further said.

Speaking about the possibility of a third wave after a disastrous second wave created havoc in the country, Kumar said, “Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.”We are fully prepared for the third wave. Our health infrastructure is much better than earlier. If by any chance a third wave strikes, it will not impact as much as I have seen. People are not careless now. They are taking full precautions and are getting vaccinated also. Thus, I believe that a third wave will not make much impact.”Kumar said he is quite hopeful that the government will vaccinate everyone above the age of 18 years.

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Sagar Biswas

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